How’s Business?
A question for the finance brokers out there – how’s business in these uncertain economic times?
With end-of-month coming up, are you on track in September for a good result, have you seen a drop off in enquiry or are there more applications coming through that simply aren’t going to service?
I think it’s fair to say that “uncertainty” is a four-letter word – at least in economic terms. How do you justify taking on a $50k loan when you’ve got everyday costs such as fuel, rent, mortgage repayments and groceries all spiking? Or even buying a new TV or a fridge?
Anyone who studied intro to economics at uni will likely recall the theory that says consumers will delay the purchase of durable goods in times of economic uncertainty.
But is that the reality right now? Are people still borrowing and spending, or are we dropping off a financial cliff?
Let’s consider some stats:
What are new car sales telling us?
2025 saw a marginal increase in new car sales from the previous year, and so far in 2026, we’re about 2% ahead again. There are lots of fully electric and hybrids out on the roads that weren’t there a few years ago, and that has to be at least partly attributed to rising fuel prices and changes to government incentives.
But of course,new car sales in isolation aren’t the most reliable indicator.
What about some loan numbers?
The ABS suggests that there was a slight decrease in new car finance from the December quarters in 2024 to 2025 whereas other loans, including personal, investment and used cars, jumped from $3.8bn in 2024 to $4.7bn during the same period.
For brokers that have seen a downturn or two over the years, those numbers probably make sense.
Personal loans can be used for a number of different things from holidays to renos, not to mention those households that regularly access “payday loans” (Small Amount Credit Contracts – SACC) to pay for everyday expenses.
As expected, there was a significant decrease in the SACC space in mid 2023 after ASIC tightened up the regulations, but there have still been around 100,000 SACC and Medium Amount Credit Contracts (MACC) entered per month since, though this overall shows a decline.
What about consumer confidence?
How about one final indicator – the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index.
An index of 100 means optimists and pessimists are evenly balanced. Anything below means there are more people expecting the light at the end of the tunnel to be an oncoming train.
It’s been generally declining since it last was over 100 in November 2025, with dips that followed the USA/Iran conflict and the resulting jump in petrol prices and two increases from the RBA in February and March.
The latest sentiment figure from September this year is 84.4 and I’m willing to bet it will drop again if the RBA increases the cash rate again tomorrow. Brokers – are you seeing fewer enquiries, more applications that fail serviceability, or both?